Nani
The Social Security COLA 2026 is the talk of every retirement forum—and for good reason.
With inflation still shaping household budgets, retirees want to know exactly how much their monthly benefits could rise, when the increase will start, and what factors could change the final number.
While some headlines suggest the “biggest raise yet,” the reality is more nuanced: the final cost-of-living adjustment will be set by changes in the CPI-W (the inflation index Social Security uses) and officially announced in mid-October 2025.
That figure will then apply to December 2025 benefits, paid in January 2026.
In this guide, we break down what the COLA is, how it’s calculated, and what it could mean for your check—including the impact of Medicare Part B premiums on your net deposit.
You’ll also see easy examples, a quick table for estimated increases, and clear answers to the most common questions, so you can plan your 2026 budget with confidence.
The Latest Projection For 2026
Independent trackers, including The Senior Citizens League, peg the 2026 COLA near 2.7%, reflecting steady—but not surging—inflation.
Media analyses echo that range, noting that a 2.7% lift would top 2025’s 2.5% increase. Remember, this remains an estimate until mid-October, when the final figure is published.
How COLA Is Calculated
COLA is tied to the CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers).
The Social Security Administration compares the average CPI-W for July–September 2025 with July–September 2024; the percentage difference (rounded to 0.1%) becomes the COLA.
If inflation cools or heats up in August/September, the projection moves.
What We Know From Recent Inflation Readings
The July 2025 CPI-W reading came in at 316.349, up about 2.5% year over year, which supports a mid-2% COLA outlook pending August and September results.
Those two months will lock in the final average that SSA uses.
When The Raise Shows Up In Your Payment
Although it’s called the 2026 COLA, the increase becomes effective with December 2025 benefits and pays out in January 2026.
That timing is standard each year.
How Much More Money You Could See
As of July 2025, the average retired-worker benefit was $2,006.69, survivors averaged $1,574.28, and Disability Insurance beneficiaries averaged $1,444.90.
The table below shows illustrative increases at 2.5% and 2.7% so you can gauge your ballpark change.
Your exact deposit may differ due to rounding rules and Medicare Part B deductions.
Estimated 2026 COLA Impact (Illustrative)
| Benefit Type (July 2025 Avg.) | Increase @ 2.5% | New Monthly @ 2.5% | Increase @ 2.7% | New Monthly @ 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired Worker ($2,006.69) | +$50.17 | $2,056.86 | +$54.18 | $2,060.87 |
| Survivor ($1,574.28) | +$39.36 | $1,613.64 | +$42.50 | $1,616.78 |
| Disability Insurance ($1,444.90) | +$36.12 | $1,481.02 | +$39.01 | $1,483.91 |
Figures shown to cents for clarity; SSA computes benefits via your PIA and rounds/truncates in practice, and your final deposit appears as whole dollars.
Don’t Forget Medicare’s Role In Your “Net” Raise
If you’re enrolled in Medicare Part B, the standard premium is $185 in 2025 and is typically deducted from your Social Security check.
The 2026 Part B premium will be announced later this fall; any change will affect how much of the COLA you see in your net deposit.
Smart Next Steps Before The Announcement
- Create/Check Your my Social Security Account: Your updated benefit amount will be reflected after the COLA is finalized in October.
- Update Your Budget: Plan using a 2.6%–2.7% assumption and adjust once the official number posts.
- Review Medicare During Open Enrollment: Make sure health plan and drug costs don’t eat the COLA. (Open Enrollment runs Oct 15–Dec 7, 2025.)
Key Takeaways
- Projected 2026 COLA: Around 2.7% (estimate until mid-October).
- Why That Number: CPI-W inflation is modest; July’s reading supports a mid-2% result pending August/September.
- When It Hits: Effective December 2025 benefits, paid January 2026.
FAQs
The final COLA is published in mid-October 2025 after the September CPI-W report. The increase applies to December 2025 benefits and arrives in January 2026 payments.